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Tom Wojcik’s report, based on figures through Sept. 26, follows the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure from oil and shipping prices to fertiliser supplies, harvests and Europe’s heating risks. It describes confirmed market and supply pressures while warning that some effects, particularly on food supplies, may emerge later. The report’s supplied excerpt ends before its discussion of gas storage and heating is complete.
Tom Wojcik, a Polish writer, says the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is linking energy-market disruption with pressure on food supplies and Europe’s winter heating outlook. His report, with figures through Sept. 26, 2026, describes the consequences of reduced tanker traffic and argues that countries built up dependencies while allowing stocks and other buffers to shrink.
Wojcik reports that U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent, he writes, citing the International Energy Agency’s description of the disruption as the largest oil-supply disruption the market has experienced. A fragile ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but it later broke down.
Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, up 19 percent in a month, reached around $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on Sept. 24, according to the report. Wojcik says Iran gave Washington a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. Washington rejected it. The report also points to a second shipping risk: Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port near the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandab chokepoint this month.
Fuel disruption is showing up in other markets. The report says Ukrainian drones have struck Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, while Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low and Moscow has restricted fuel exports. U.S. diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on Sept. 10. In France, official data showed that 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage; Wojcik says most affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, whose price cap drew drivers and depleted local stocks faster than deliveries could replenish them.
From Tanker Routes to Food Bills
The disruption matters beyond the price of crude because fuel and fertiliser both support food production. Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warns that shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Those effects may arrive after the initial shipping shock: fertiliser delivered late cannot restore a missed planting window, while existing grain stocks can delay visible signs of a weaker harvest.
The report also describes a difficult starting point for humanitarian relief. It says 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and estimates that food-assistance funding fell 59 percent between 2022 and 2025. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. These are attributed warnings and estimates, not a count of people already newly affected by the Hormuz closure.
For European readers, Wojcik connects the global supply shock to local harvests and heating. Potato growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less after a prior-year glut, then faced five heatwaves and drought. Their industry group expects a harvest down 25 percent, among the smallest in a decade. The supplied report excerpt also flags a half-empty gas cavern in Bavaria, but does not include enough of its later text to establish the scale or likely impact of winter heating constraints.
A Crisis With Several Links
Wojcik frames the story from Poland, which he describes as bordering Europe’s largest war since 1945, relying on coal and imported gas for heating, and financing military expansion with borrowing. His central argument is that risks that might once have been treated as separate stories are now interacting: a Gulf conflict affects oil transport, refinery output influences diesel availability, and energy and fertiliser constraints may reach farms with a delay.
Some of the market movements described are sharp, but their scope needs context. A tanker-shipping fund tracked in the report rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September. Day rates for some supertankers rose from below $100,000 before the war to about $860,000 on Sept. 10. Wojcik says the fund is small and its manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens; those gains describe a narrow investment product and shipping market, not the broader economy.
The French station figures also show how a local distribution problem can resemble a general shortage. The government said there was no national shortage, while the share of stations without petrol or diesel rose to 15 percent. The report notes the official count includes a station only if it has run out of every petrol grade or of diesel, so it may not capture every partial stockout. In this case, a price cap at one major retailer reportedly concentrated demand at its stations.
“Sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity.”
— World Food Programme, as cited by Tom Wojcik
Food and Heating Effects Ahead
The supplied source ends partway through its discussion of grain prices. It does not provide the full evidence behind the report’s reference to a half-empty Bavarian gas cavern, specify its measurement date, or quantify what it could mean for household heating this winter. Its later details on Polish energy stocks and heating are therefore unavailable here.
The timing and scale of agricultural effects also remain uncertain. The FAO warning concerns potential yield and supply impacts through late 2026 and into 2027, while the World Food Programme figure is an estimate conditional on sustained high oil prices. Wojcik’s excerpt does not give a final forecast for global food prices or identify how much of the reported potato harvest decline is attributable to the Hormuz crisis rather than heat, drought and planting decisions.
Diplomatic prospects are unsettled as well. The report says Washington rejected Iran’s proposed road map and cites one report that the U.S. president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections. That expectation is reported as a claim; the supplied material does not establish that military operations will resume on that schedule.
Diplomacy and Winter Supply
The immediate milestones are whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, whether the ceasefire effort returns to negotiations and how tanker traffic responds. A reopening could ease shipping costs, though the fund manager cited by Wojcik says tanker rates would fall if that happened. The report gives no confirmed date for a new diplomatic round or for any change in the blockade.
Through late 2026 and into 2027, readers will also need to watch fertiliser availability, crop yields and food-assistance funding. In Europe, the report’s warning about winter heating cannot be evaluated fully without the missing storage data and further information on gas supply. The figures and claims here describe a fast-moving situation; future developments may alter both the scale and direction of the pressures.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil transport and prices, with possible knock-on effects for fertiliser, harvests and winter heating.
How much has tanker traffic through Hormuz fallen?
The report says tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran closed the strait in March 2026.
Does the report say France has run out of fuel?
No. It says France’s government ruled out a national shortage, although 15 percent of stations were reported out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20. The report attributes many empty pumps to concentrated demand at TotalEnergies stations with a price cap.
Could the closure affect food supplies?
The FAO warns that fertiliser scarcity could cut yields and tighten supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The timing and scale of the effect remain uncertain, and the report does not provide a final estimate of resulting food-price changes.
What remains unknown about winter heating?
The source excerpt mentions a half-empty gas cavern in Bavaria but stops before giving its measurement date, supporting data or expected effect on heating. It does not establish how household supplies will fare this winter.
Source: hn
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